Falling Mist
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Pakistan and India are in a tit–for–tat trade dispute over rice exports, each matching the other’s moves by withdrawing minimum export prices on rice products. Prime Minister Modi—caught between the needs of rural farmers and domestic consumers—had until recently curbed rice exports as part of his effort to keep domestic prices in check, which led to a Basmati export boom in Pakistan.
In a 2024 article, PUSPA SHARMA and SWADHI KARTHIKEYAN examine the domestic objectives behind India’s rice export restrictions and the consequences for farmers and neighboring countries:
“Prioritising domestic availability of rice and ensuring price stability has been a leading cause of rice export restrictions. During the election season, this becomes even more visible, as was the case in India. However, many Indian farmers were not happy with the export restrictions. According to the National President of the Kisan Mahapanchayat (Farmers Union), the government policy to ban food exports and allow cheaper imports reduced farmers’ meagre agricultural incomes. Moreover, despite the export restrictions, domestic food prices did not stabilize. India’s food inflation reached an all-time high of 190.6 points, which was up by 7.68 percent compared to the previous year. This had a double impact on a majority of the farmers who lost their income on the one hand, and as consumers, they had to face high food prices. Hence, justifying the rice export restriction policy as a preference towards domestic price stability and peace is perhaps a specious argument. The rising inflation and farmers’ discontent that was seen in the 2024 election results are evidence for that.”
+ “The agrarian crisis in Punjab has intensified. Industry has seen a reversal, and corporate investments in agriculture have been unable to catalyze sustained development, alternative forms of employment, or economic diversification.” In PW, Shreya Sinha looks at the effects of Modi’s policies in the agriculturally-dependent Indian Punjab. Link. “In India, Punjab has almost no competitor in the field of rice production. Robust production in recent years did not really translate into gains for
farmers as prices remained subdued.” By Suvidh Shah. Link.
+ “Despite large input subsidies and price support, trade restrictions, among other things, reduce farmers’ actual price realization.” By Shweta Saini and Siraj Hussain. Link. “Rigidity of the export prices is likely to lead to national loss of foreign exchange, since the demand for fine rice is elastic.” Syed Mushtaq Hussain on the potential of Pakistani rice exports. Link.
+ “The uncertainty caused by a sudden rise or fall in commodity prices has the potential to exacerbate the consequences of price declines relative to gains. Pakistan can achieve sustainable growth in agriculture by putting farmers back at the core circle of policy-making processes.” By Umair Kashif, Junguo Shi, Snovia Naseem, Muhammad Ayaz, Rehan Sohail Butt, Waris Ali Khan, and Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan. Link.
NEW RESEARCHERS
Water quality
CLAIRE LEPAULT recently obtained her PhD from the Paris School of Economics. In her job market paper, using evidence from water quality and infant mortality, she assesses the effectiveness of wastewater treatment in India.
From the abstract:
“In developing countries, untreated sewage exposes people to alarming water pollution levels, yet there is limited knowledge about the effectiveness of wastewater treatment investments. I evaluate the effect of wastewater treatment on water quality and infant mortality in India, exploiting the staggered introduction of urban sewage treatment plants over the period 2010–2020. I match granular data on sewage treatment plants, river water quality, as well as child births and deaths using the hydrological network. I show that after starting wastewater treatment, levels of fecal coliforms—a commonly used measure of fecal contamination in water—decreased by 53 percent. Mortality under the age of six months declined by 20 percent downstream of the plants, with larger effects for boys and children from the bottom wealth quintiles. The results are consistent across several estimators robust to heterogeneous treatment effects, are not driven by selective migration, and are only found downstream of the plants, which rules out confounding effects from other local policies. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that starting wastewater treatment earlier—from 2010—in urban areas later selected into treatment—after 2020—would have prevented over 40,000 child deaths in downstream sub-basins.”
+ + +
+ “As we near the end of the Biden administration, revisiting the debates surrounding the 1990s’ neoliberal settlement reveals troubling parallels with the present political juncture.” New on PW, Henry Tonks reviews When the Clock Broke by John Ganz and A Fabulous Failure by Nelson Lichtenstein and Judith Stein. Link.
+ “The reach of Morena’s popularity—leading twenty-two out of thirty-two states with its allies—is astounding. Morena has gained more electoral support than any party throughout the country’s quarter century of democracy.” Also new on PW, Camilo Ruiz Tassinari on the limits of Morena’s rise to power in Mexico. Link.
+ In two recent ProPublica reports, Brett Murphy details how Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and the State Department have consistently disregarded legal limitations and internal objections to Israel’s human rights violations, instead working with lobbyists and weapons contractors to fulfill weapon transfer requests. Link, link. And in PW, see Tim Barker and Dylan Saba’s interview with former DoD attorney Sarah Harrison on US legal limitations regarding weapons transfers to countries that are arbitrarily blocking humanitarian aid. Link.
+ “HRAs would provide public disaster insurance—filling gaps in private-sector coverage—and coordinate comprehensive disaster risk-reduction activities, taking the burden off individuals to “harden” their homes against extreme weather events.” By Kate Aronoff. Link.
+ “The South remains poor, underdeveloped, and lags behind the rest of the country by every measurable standard.” By Keri Leigh Merritt. Link.
+ Florian Kajuth uses evidence from Germany to examine the pivotal role of land prices for house prices, housing supply, and residential investment. Link.
+ Alexander Hertel-Fernandez focuses on the labor movement to explore how private and public sector unions with increasingly left-leaning leadership engage conservative and Republican members. Link.
+ “The failure of the Social Democrats and Communists in Germany to resist the rise of Nazism and to offer the German workers a socialist alternative to unemployment and fascism had its effects in Czechoslovakia. Industry in the Sudetenland was more severely hit than elsewhere in Czechoslovakia by the slump of the thirties, and unemployment among German speakers was about twice the national average. The appeal of pro-Nazi German nationalism grew among the Sudeten population, until in 1935 the pro-Nazi party polled 62–63 percent of the Sudeten votes. Nevertheless 300,000 Sudetens continued to vote for the Social Democrats and about 120,000 for communists. After Munich 40,000 of these suffered heroically for their internationalism in Nazi concentration camps, where about half of them perished.” By Chris Harman. Link.